Monday, November 10, 2014

The Ghost of J. Crow

Here's something I just found out canoodling with Census figures:

If the GOP is racist because of Nixon's Southern Strategy.... what does that mean?

It means that "The GOP is racist because some people who vote GOP once voted for Jim Crow laws in the Old South."

This is objective bullshit, and I can prove it.

Okay. Let's figure out what happened. They passed the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights Act in 1964, and it they went into effect in 1965.

In 1965, the voting age in the Old South was a uniform 21 years old.

Which means that everybody who voted for Jim Crow laws--before they were made illegal--must have been born no later than December 31, 1944.

This also means people who were born in 1944 or earlier would be 70 years old and up today.

So. There are, as of July 1, 2013, 104.5 million people in the Old South (that is, the Old Confederacy plus Kentucky, not a member of the Old Confederacy but a state that embraced Jim Crow laws).

Of those, 9.89% are aged 70 or older. Assume 10% of that number is African American, thus none would have EVER vote for Jim Crow. Of that remainder let's be pessimistic and assume that 60% of voters in the Old South would have actively supported Jim Crow laws in the voting booth.

Now, over-70s ARE registered to vote more than any other age group. 80%. Of those voters who registered almost all (87.5%) of them actually voted in 2012 (the latest year for which figures are available).


....out of 104.5 million people in the Old South, 353,882 (or  can be presumed to be old-style guilty-of-supporting-Jim-Crow racists who voted in this election. Scattered over ten states. Or about 35,000 votes/state. Or about 3/10 of 1% of the entire region.

This chart tells the tale (click to embiggen):

So, 353,882  divided by 104,553,833 = what? 0.00385, or under 4/10s of 1%.

Can we put the GOP-and-the-South-are-racist shit to bed now, please?

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Keep it clean for gene.