Not so fast.
Fox News has a good analysis as to why this won't happen, but I'd like to mention a more immediate reason:
Let us call her Karen. She's eleven years old.
She's a sixth grader with an IQ about about ten zillion. She's top of her class in her elementary school here in Macomb County.
And she is why China will not surpass us, or even continue to succeed.
Karen is the daughter of a good friend of mine, who adopted her from a Chinese orphanage: she was thrown there as a result of the Chinese one-child policy.
They don't need girls, you see. Just boys to carry on the family name.
But if they throw away children like Karen--who will grow into a marvellous adult--what are they doing to themselves?
Under the one child policy, according to Wikipedia, the Chinese government has "prevented" some 250 million births.
Think about that.
That is a quarter of a billion people.
And no Mexico next door to import replacements from.
Think about that!
China is demographically aging as a result of this policy. In twenty years, the number of retirees will triple.
That's a hell of a lot of people for the individuals left alive to support through the local equivalent of Social Security.
And also an army of males who will never, ever marry.
Karen is what makes America great. But.... what of the boy who 'should' have married her back in China?
We're talking tens of millions of males, presently and getting worse, who will never, ever, marry, or even have a sexual relationship with a woman because the Chinese government has destroyed them!
The unreformed Chinese communist system, plus the unreleased sexual energy of a hundred million unmarried and unmarriable males, can only mean one thing: war.
Possibly war with us. But more likely, civil war.
No, China will not surpass the United States.
If our own abortive policies are harming us, consider what China's is doing to them.
Think about it.
An old wargaming buddy of mine writes:
"We are still rather far ahead on Production Points, but our main opponent's Reinforcement Track is pretty full, and his Technology Index is only one level below our own. Next couple of turns should be interesting -- will we choose the Offensive or Defensive? In any event, we'd better keep investing in Breakthroughs like wind power and nanotechnology and the like, or we're screwed..."All too true. But then, both we and the Chinese (and the Russians and the Europeans) have pulled the Iconoclasm and Heresy cards this turn, too...
As for breakthroughs, I'd prefer Translight Travel, Microsoft-Free Windows, Fusion Power and Ultra-High-Capacity Batteries.
Oh. And lasers. Eight o'clock. Day one.